Jaden McDaniels

Minnesota Timberwolves · F · #3

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1573 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Edwards

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of 6 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

at DEN, 2026-04-18: 8, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-20: 2, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-23: 10, cleared, 41 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-25: 8, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-27: 3, missed, 27 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-30: 10, cleared, 45 min
at SA, 2026-05-04: 5, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-06: 3, missed, 20 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-08: 7, cleared, 40 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-10: 6, cleared, 41 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-12: 6, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-15: 1, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 8, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 31 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 7, cleared, 35 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 33 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 39 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 2.3–9 rebounds.

What's different yesterday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out yesterday. Without him: Over 4.5 in 12 of 22.

YesterdayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 4.5 without him: 12 of 22; with him: 42 of 81 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Over 4.5 without him: 24 of 46; with him: 30 of 57 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 4.5 without him: 12 of 16; with him: 42 of 87 (103 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
HOU allow 17.6 rebounds a game to forwards: 20th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU in his last 20; Over 4.5 cleared in 6 of 7 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Ayo DosunmuG
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs HOU

Rebounds: 7 in 35 min, Apr 10 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 6 of 7 games against HOU on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Over 4.5

Average: 5.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 6; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −172

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −172, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+1001 book	—	6/6
−9103 books	—	6/6
−3352 books	—	4/6
−1573 books	+1161 book	4/6
+1192 books	−1571 book	4/6
+2103 books	—	2/6
+3602 books	—	1/6

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Pinnacle13 hr ago	−155Best	+116Best
Bally Bet13 hr ago	−157	—
DraftKings13 hr ago	−159	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

5.5 → 4.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jaden McDaniels's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.