Jaden McDaniels
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 5.5
71%5 of 7L20 · Without Edwards
Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 5 of 7 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.6–9.4 rebounds.
What's different today
Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick4 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out today. Without him: Over 5.5 in 12 of 23.
TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 12 of 23; with him: 28 of 81 (104 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
NO allow 22.1 rebounds a game to forwards: 3rd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 5.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: 28 of 87 (104 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 33.2 (9 games)
Splits
Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against NO in his last 20; Over 5.5 cleared in 1 of 6 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 5.5 · L20Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs NO
McDaniels didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; rebounds the last time McDaniels faced them: 1 (Feb 6)
Over 5.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against NO on record
L20 · Without Edwards · Over 5.5
- Average
- 6.1
- +0.6 vs line
- Median
- 6
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 71%
- 5 of 7
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −112
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −133
Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14305 books | — | 7/7 | |
| −4355 books | — | 5/7 | |
| −2105 books | +1751 book | 5/7 | |
| −1127 books | −1186 books | 5/7 | |
| +1555 books | −1901 book | 3/7 | |
| +2605 books | — | 2/7 | |
| +4204 books | — | 1/7 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet16 min ago | −109Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −109Best | −124 |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −109Best | −124 |
| Pinnacle16 min ago | −112 | −118 |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −114 | −114 |
| DraftKings16 min ago | −119 | −111 |
| Bovada16 min ago | −120 | −110Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:51 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
5.5Over: −114 → −112 since first seen