Jaden McDaniels

Minnesota Timberwolves · F · #3

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under19.5

Under 19.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1072 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

33%2 of 6L20 · Without Edwards

Under 19.5 Pts+Ast hit in 2 of 6 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

at DEN, 2026-04-18: 19, hit, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-20: 17, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-23: 23, missed, 41 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-25: 15, hit, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-27: 14, hit, 27 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-30: 35, missed, 45 min
at SA, 2026-05-04: 18, hit, 36 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-06: 16, hit, 20 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-08: 19, hit, 40 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-10: 14, hit, 41 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-12: 19, hit, 30 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-15: 16, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 18, hit, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 19, hit, 30 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 17, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 18, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 23, missed, 35 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 30, missed, 33 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 22, missed, 39 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 16, hit, 29 min

Under hitMissedThe 19.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for Wednesday's game: a typical game lands 11–27.2 pts+ast.

What's different on Wednesday

Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

6 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out on Wednesday. Without him: Under 19.5 in 6 of 22.

WedTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Under 19.5 without him: 6 of 22; with him: 58 of 81 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Under 19.5 without him: 27 of 46; with him: 37 of 57 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Under 19.5 without him: 12 of 16; with him: 52 of 87 (103 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 32.8 (8 games)

Splits

Under 19.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU in his last 20; Under 19.5 hit in 5 of 7 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 19.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Ayo DosunmuG
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs HOU

Pts+Ast: 18 in 35 min, Apr 10 (away)

Under 19.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against HOU on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Under 19.5

Average: 23.3; +3.8 vs line
Median: 22.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 2 of 6
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −107 the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−21001 book	—	0/6
−4192 books	—	1/6
pick'em only	pick'em only	2/6
−1232 books	−1071 book	2/6
−1031 book	—	2/6
+2192 books	—	4/6
+6001 book	—	4/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
DraftKings31 hr ago	−123	−107Best
Bally Bet31 hr ago	+100Best	—

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

−122 → −107 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jaden McDaniels's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.