Jaden McDaniels

Minnesota Timberwolves · F · #3

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price −1586 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his last 7 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out today. Without him: Over 2.5 in 16 of 22.

TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 16 of 22; with him: 39 of 81 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 2.5 without him: 10 of 16; with him: 45 of 87 (103 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
HOU allow 8.5 assists a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 32.8 (8 games)

83%5 of 6L20 · Without Edwards

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 5 of 6 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

at DEN, 2026-04-18: 3, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-20: 3, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-23: 3, cleared, 41 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-25: 3, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-27: 1, missed, 27 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-30: 3, cleared, 45 min
at SA, 2026-05-04: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-06: 4, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-08: 2, missed, 40 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-10: 0, missed, 41 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-12: 2, missed, 30 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-15: 3, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 4, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 31 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 4, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 35 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 7, cleared, 33 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 39 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 3, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 assists.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU in his last 20; Over 2.5 cleared in 3 of 7 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs HOU

Assists: 2 in 35 min, Apr 10 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against HOU on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Over 2.5

Average: 3.5; +1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 83%; 5 of 6
Price implies: 61%; at −158
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −143 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4354 books	—	5/6
−1586 books	+1185 books	5/6
+1656 books	−2001 book	2/6
+3605 books	—	1/6
+6602 books	—	1/6
+12002 books	—	1/6
+24001 book	—	0/6

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−143Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−143Best	+107
BetRivers2 min ago	−143Best	+106
FanDuel3 min ago	−158	+118
DraftKings4 min ago	−159	+121Best
Bovada4 min ago	−160	+120
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over −148 → −158 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jaden McDaniels's full game log and splits