Jaden McDaniels

Minnesota Timberwolves · F · #3

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price −1462 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

86%6 of 7L20 · Without Edwards

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 6 of 7 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

at DEN, 2026-04-20: 3, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-23: 3, cleared, 41 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-04-25: 3, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-04-27: 1, missed, 27 min
vs DEN, 2026-04-30: 3, cleared, 45 min
at SA, 2026-05-04: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-06: 4, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-08: 2, missed, 40 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-10: 0, missed, 41 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-12: 2, missed, 30 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-15: 3, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 4, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 31 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 4, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 35 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 7, cleared, 33 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 39 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 3, cleared, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-11-04: 4, cleared, 37 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his last 8 came with Anthony Edwards playing; Edwards is out today. Without him: Over 2.5 in 17 of 23.

TodayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 17 of 23; with him: 39 of 81 (104 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 2.5 without him: 11 of 17; with him: 45 of 87 (104 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NO allow 7.1 assists a game to forwards: 21st most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 33.2 (9 games)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 20; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 6 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
LaMelo BallG
Ayo DosunmuG
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

McDaniels didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; assists the last time McDaniels faced them: 2 (Feb 6)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Over 2.5

Average: 3.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 86%; 6 of 7
Price implies: 59%; at −146
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −157

Research, not a pick. At −144 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −157, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4301 book	—	6/7
−1462 books	+1082 books	6/7
+1632 books	—	3/7
+8701 book	—	1/7
+14601 book	—	1/7

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−144Best	+108
DraftKings5 min ago	−146	+111Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −144 → −146 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jaden McDaniels's full game log and splits