Isaiah Collier

Utah Jazz · G · #8

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Assists, typical price −1161 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Out (knee)
Over 4.5 without him: 11 of 15; with him: 6 of 7 (22 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 18 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (59 games) · down 30%
Teammate out
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (foot)
Over 4.5 without him: 25 of 33; with him: 23 of 33 (66 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
NO allow 16.9 assists a game to guards: 6th most of 30
7 games

73%11 of 15L20 · Without Jackson

Over 4.5 Assists cleared in 11 of 15 games without Jaren Jackson Jr. (his last 20 games).

vs SAC, 2026-02-11: 14, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2026-02-12: 9, cleared, 36 min
at MEM, 2026-02-20: 5, cleared, 25 min
at HOU, 2026-02-23: 3, missed, 30 min
vs NO, 2026-02-26: 7, cleared, 27 min
vs NO, 2026-02-28: 7, cleared, 33 min
vs DEN, 2026-03-02: 6, cleared, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-03-04: 5, cleared, 26 min
at WSH, 2026-03-05: 11, cleared, 29 min
vs NY, 2026-03-11: 5, cleared, 19 min
at POR, 2026-03-13: 9, cleared, 30 min
at SAC, 2026-03-15: 3, missed, 25 min
at MIN, 2026-03-18: 6, cleared, 28 min
at MEM, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs NO, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 18 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 13 min (not counted)
vs MEM, 2026-10-26: 8, cleared, 21 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-10-31: 4, missed, 20 min
at SA, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 12 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–8 assists.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L20

Keyonte GeorgeG
Lauri MarkkanenF
Jaren Jackson Jr.FOut
Jusuf NurkicCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jazz count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NO

Assists: 7 in 18 min, Oct 23 (home)

Over 4.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against NO on record

L20 · Without Jackson · Over 4.5

Average: 5.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 6; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 73%; 11 of 15
Price implies: 54%; at −116
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −116 the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Jackson

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−1161 book	−1141 book	11/15

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Pinnacle9 min ago	−116Best	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−160 → −116 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Isaiah Collier's full game log and splits