Herbert Jones

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #2

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Rebounds, typical price −1782 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 2.5 without him: 23 of 36; with him: 15 of 27 (63 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: 27 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 21.0 rebounds a game to forwards: 7th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24 min · 2025–26: 28.4 (56 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Rebounds cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at POR, 2026-04-02: 4, cleared, 26 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, missed, 13 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 3, cleared, 9 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 17 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 18 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 16 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 19 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 25 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–6.4 rebounds.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Rebounds: 1 in 18 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −178
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −144 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1782 books	+1092 books	6/10
+1402 books	—	3/10
+3181 book	—	0/10
+6002 books	—	0/10
+12201 book	—	0/10
+18002 books	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−144Best	+109
FanDuel2 min ago	−178	+132Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−180 → −178 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Herbert Jones's full game log and splits