Herbert Jones

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #2

UTAH @ NO · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −2122 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
UTAH allow 6.4 threes made a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 28 of 36; with him: 20 of 27 (63 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 10 of 16; with him: 38 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 24 min · 2025–26: 28.4 (56 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at POR, 2026-04-02: 2, cleared, 26 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, cleared, 13 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 1, cleared, 9 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 17 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 18 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 16 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 19 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 32 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 25 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 3, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

3-Pointers Made: 1 in 18 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 6 of 7 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −212
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −215

Research, not a pick. At −188 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −215, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2122 books	+1572 books	7/10
+2202 books	pick'em only	2/10
+6682 books	—	1/10
+17862 books	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings4 min ago	−188Best	+142
FanDuel3 min ago	−240	+174Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:19 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −240 → −212 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Herbert Jones's full game log and splits