Georges Niang

Golden State Warriors · F · #32

MIA @ GS · Thu, Nov 5 10:00 PM

Over Under7.5

—1 pick'em app, no priceUpdated

38%3 of 8L20 · Without Butler

Over 7.5 Points cleared in 3 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

vs GS, 2025-03-22: 23, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2025-03-23: 20, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
at HOU, 2025-03-25: 12, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2025-03-27: 5, missed, 14 min (not counted)
at MIL, 2025-03-30: 17, cleared, 15 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2025-04-01: 3, missed, 17 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-04-02: 6, missed, 20 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2025-04-05: 13, cleared, 25 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2025-04-06: 6, missed, 19 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2025-04-08: 9, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2025-04-10: 11, cleared, 19 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2025-04-11: 16, cleared, 17 min (not counted)
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 7, missed, 20 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 13 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 23 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 9, cleared, 18 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 23 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 11, cleared, 19 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 21 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 13, cleared, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1.2–16.6 points.

What's different yesterday

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with GS; before that, UTAH
Over 7.5 with GS: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10

Splits

Over 7.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Niang didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; points the last time Niang faced them: 5 (Mar 27, 2025)

Over 7.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 7.5

Average: 7.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 7; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 38%; 3 of 8
Price implies: —; 1 pick'em app, no price
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −104

Research, not a pick. No sportsbook prices the Over 7.5 right now; it's posted on 1 pick'em app. Our fair price is −104.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	pick'em only	pick'em only	3/8

Compare 1 pick'em app at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over isn't priced at 7.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Georges Niang's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:10 PM ET.