Donovan Mitchell
CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM
What's different tonight
Under 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTeammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 9.5 without him: 0 of 1; with him: 3 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 34 (88 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Game lines
CLE +2.5 · total 228.5 (6 sportsbooks)
CLE's games this season closed at 234.6 on average (7 games)
Game log against Under 9.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 9.5 Reb+Ast hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 4.8–12.2 reb+ast.
Splits
Under 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 9.5 · L10James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs OKC
Reb+Ast: 16 in 36 min, Nov 2 (home)
Under 9.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against OKC on record
L10 · Under 9.5
- Average
- 9
- −0.5 vs line
- Median
- 8
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −122
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −137
Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −25001 book | — | 0/10 | |
| −2901 book | — | 5/10 | |
| −1095 books | −1223 books | 6/10 | |
| +2151 book | — | 6/10 | |
| +7001 book | — | 9/10 | |
| +20001 book | — | 10/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 9.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 9.5 | Under 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings8 min ago | −110 | −120Best |
| betPARX5 min ago | −109 | −122 |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −104Best | −128 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −109 | — |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −109 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
9.5Under −128 → −122 since first seen