Donovan Mitchell

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #45

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under33.5

Under 33.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1185 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his last 4 came with Peyton Watson playing; Watson is out today. Without him: Under 33.5 in 1 of 1.

TodayTeammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 33.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 4 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
OKC allow 82.9 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 21st most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 34 (88 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC

70%7 of 10L10

Under 33.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 31, hit, 39 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 28, hit, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 36, missed, 32 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 45, missed, 35 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 31, hit, 35 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 38, missed, 38 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 31, hit, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 28, hit, 33 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 22, hit, 24 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 33, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 33.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 20.4–41.8 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Under 33.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 33.5 · L10

James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Pts+Reb+Ast: 33 in 36 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 33.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 33.5

Average: 32.3; −1.2 vs line
Median: 31; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2304 books	—	3/10
−1651 book	+1251 book	6/10
−1352 books	−1102 books	6/10
−1135 books	−1184 books	7/10
+1045 books	−1351 book	7/10
+1201 book	−1601 book	7/10
+2304 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks at 33.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 33.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 33.5	Under 33.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−116	−113Best
Bovada2 min ago	−115	−115
betPARX1 min ago	−112Best	−118
BetRivers2 min ago	−113	−120
Bally Bet2 min ago	−112Best	—

Prices as of 2:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

33.5

32.5 → 33.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Donovan Mitchell's full game log and splits