Donovan Mitchell

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · #45

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1101 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
OKC allow 14.7 assists a game to guards: 20th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 34 (88 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Game lines
CLE +2.5 · total 228.5 (8 sportsbooks)
CLE's games this season closed at 234.6 on average (7 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-21: 1, hit, 39 min
vs NY, 2026-05-23: 4, hit, 38 min
vs NY, 2026-05-25: 1, hit, 32 min
at PHI, 2026-10-22: 3, hit, 35 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-24: 4, hit, 35 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-26: 7, missed, 38 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-29: 3, hit, 33 min
at MIL, 2026-10-31: 3, hit, 24 min
vs OKC, 2026-11-02: 11, missed, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

James HardenG
Evan MobleyC
Peyton WatsonGDay-To-Day

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OKC

Assists: 11 in 36 min, Nov 2 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against OKC on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 3.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −110 the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−40001 book	—	2/10
−2651 book	—	5/10
−1181 book	−1101 book	7/10
+1761 book	—	7/10
+6301 book	—	9/10
+14001 book	—	9/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−118Best	−110Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under −114 → −110 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Donovan Mitchell's full game log and splits