Dejounte Murray
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 11.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 11.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.2–16.6 reb+ast.
What's different today
Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick3 of his last 4 came before Murray missed 3 games. Since he came back: Over 11.5 in 1 of 1.
TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 2nd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 29 – Nov 2)
Over 11.5 since: 1 of 1
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 34.8 min · 2025–26: 27.9 (14 games) · up 25%
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 11.5 without him: 4 of 5; with him: 7 of 14 (19 games as teammates)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Splits
Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN in his last 10; Over 11.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 11.5 · L10Jeremiah FearsG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIN
Murray didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; reb+ast the last time Murray faced them: 8 (Jan 7, 2025)
Over 11.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIN on record
L10 · Over 11.5
- Average
- 12.2
- +0.7 vs line
- Median
- 12
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −141
Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −141, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −9001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −2654 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −1801 book | +1351 book | 8/10 | |
| −1206 books | −1104 books | 7/10 | |
| +1251 book | −1651 book | 3/10 | |
| +2704 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +8501 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 11.5 | Under 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet12 min ago | −112Best | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | −112Best | −121 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −112Best | — |
| Bovada12 min ago | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings12 min ago | −120 | −109 |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −125 | −106Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:25 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
11.5Over: −112 → −120 since first seen