Dejounte Murray

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #5

UTAH @ NO · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Assists, typical price −1492 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came before Murray missed 3 games. Since he came back: Over 5.5 in no games.

TonightBack from an absence
Tonight is his 1st game back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 29 – Nov 2)
Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 5.5 without him: 5 of 11; with him: 5 of 7 (18 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 2 of 4; with him: 8 of 14 (18 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 15.0 assists a game to guards: 19th most of 30
7 games

70%7 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 11, cleared, 30 min
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 9, cleared, 30 min
at NY, 2026-03-24: 12, cleared, 28 min
at DET, 2026-03-26: 4, missed, 29 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 6, cleared, 28 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 5, missed, 28 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 7, cleared, 34 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 30 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 35 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 5, missed, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3–10 assists.

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Assists: 6 in 30 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 5.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 7.1; +1.6 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −149
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −140, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−22001 book	—	10/10
−7442 books	—	10/10
−2911 book	—	9/10
−1492 books	+1132 books	7/10
+1251 book	—	4/10
+2312 books	—	3/10
+3911 book	—	3/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings7 min ago	−145Best	+110
FanDuel3 min ago	−154	+116Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:32 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over −158 → −149 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Dejounte Murray's full game log and splits