Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ LAL · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1253 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 21.5 Points hit in 4 of 7 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2025-03-01: 28, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 23, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 34, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 26, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 22, missed, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 15, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 22, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 25, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 19, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 16, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 14, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 7, hit, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 0, hit, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 25, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 19, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 21, hit, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 9, hit, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 22, missed, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 20, hit, 30 min
at PHX, 2026-11-04: 25, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.2–24.5 points.

What's different today

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Shaedon Sharpe playing; Sharpe is out today. Without him: Under 21.5 in 4 of 7.

TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 21.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 3 of 4 (7 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
LAL allow 62.1 points a game to guards: 6th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

Splits

Under 21.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAL

Points: 21 in 31 min, Oct 27 (away)

Under 21.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against LAL on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 21.5

Average: 20.1; −1.4 vs line
Median: 21; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −153, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5902 books	—	1/7
−2681 book	—	1/7
−1672 books	—	2/7
−1063 books	−1253 books	4/7
+1652 books	—	5/7
+4292 books	—	7/7
+10202 books	—	7/7

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−111	−115Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−106	−125
Pinnacle5 min ago	−102Best	−130
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Under: −130 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits