Damian Lillard
POR @ LAL · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 21.5
57%4 of 7L20 · Without Sharpe
Under 21.5 Points hit in 4 of 7 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.2–24.5 points.
What's different today
Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Shaedon Sharpe playing; Sharpe is out today. Without him: Under 21.5 in 4 of 7.
TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 21.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 3 of 4 (7 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
LAL allow 62.1 points a game to guards: 6th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)
Splits
Under 21.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 21.5 · L20Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs LAL
Points: 21 in 31 min, Oct 27 (away)
Under 21.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against LAL on record
L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 21.5
- Average
- 20.1
- −1.4 vs line
- Median
- 21
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 57%
- 4 of 7
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −151
Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2301 book | +1701 book | 1/7 | |
| −1676 books | +1351 book | 2/7 | |
| −1451 book | +1101 book | 3/7 | |
| −1137 books | −1206 books | 4/7 | |
| +1101 book | −1451 book | 5/7 | |
| +1304 books | −1701 book | 5/7 | |
| +1603 books | −2151 book | 5/7 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings2 min ago | −117 | −109Best |
| Bovada7 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| betPARX3 min ago | −113 | −120 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −113 | −120 |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −106 | −125 |
| Pinnacle2 min ago | −102Best | −129 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −113 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.5Under: −130 → −120 since first seen