Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ LAL · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1457 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%4 of 7L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 4 of 7 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2025-03-01: 6, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 4, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 5, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 4, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 4, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 11, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 10, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 8, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 2, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 4, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 7, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 5, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 2, hit, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 6, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 4, hit, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 2, hit, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 4, hit, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 6, missed, 30 min
at PHX, 2026-11-04: 5, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 4.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 3 of 4 (7 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
LAL allow 17.0 assists a game to guards: 4th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAL

Assists: 4 in 31 min, Oct 27 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against LAL on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 4 of 7
Price implies: 59%; at −145
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −128 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −145, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−20004 books	—	0/7
−5005 books	—	2/7
−2006 books	+1501 book	2/7
+1087 books	−1456 books	4/7
+2105 books	—	5/7
+3805 books	—	7/7
+6505 books	—	7/7

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−104	−128Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−102	−130
DraftKings2 min ago	+109	−143
Bovada8 min ago	+110Best	−145
betPARX4 min ago	+108	−148
BetRivers2 min ago	+108	−148
Bally Bet2 min ago	+108	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −136 → −145 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits