Brayden Burries

Milwaukee Bucks · G · #0

TOR @ MIL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1504 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L8

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 5 of his last 8 games (4 of 4 at home).

at WSH, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 16 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 8 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 17 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 16 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 17 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 21 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 26 min
at BOS, 2026-11-04: 1, cleared, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
TOR allow 3.5 steals a game to guards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 20.4 min · 2026–27: 17.9 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at BOS
Game lines
MIL +4.5 · total 229.5 (7 sportsbooks)
MIL's games this season closed at 234 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L8

Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Burries didn't play the Feb 22 meeting

L8 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L8

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−1504 books	+1101 book	5/8
+2954 books	—	0/8
+6001 book	—	0/8
+16001 book	—	0/8

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−150Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−150Best	+110Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−150Best	—
DraftKings3 min ago	−238	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Brayden Burries's full game log and splits