Brandon Miller
BOS @ CHA · Today 7:00 PMGame log against Under 30.5
50%4 of 8L20 · Without Knueppel
Under 30.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 4 of 8 games without Kon Knueppel (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 15.3–38.7 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Under 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Kon Knueppel: Out (hamstring)
Under 30.5 without him: 4 of 9; with him: 42 of 65 (74 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dennis Schroder: Out (thigh)
Under 30.5 without him: no games; with him: 5 of 9 (9 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moussa Diabate: Out (quadriceps)
Under 30.5 without him: 5 of 9; with him: 41 of 65 (74 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BOS allow 73.4 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 10th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Under 30.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 30.5 · L20Naz ReidC
Kon KnueppelGOut
Coby WhiteG
Dennis SchroderGOut
Moussa DiabateFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hornets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs BOS
Pts+Reb+Ast: 22 in 34 min, Apr 7 (away)
Under 30.5 hit in 7 of 7 games against BOS on record
L20 · Without Knueppel · Under 30.5
- Average
- 31.3
- +0.8 vs line
- Median
- 31
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Knueppel| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1901 book | +1451 book | 3/8 | |
| −1601 book | +1201 book | 4/8 | |
| −1346 books | −1062 books | 4/8 | |
| −1126 books | −1205 books | 4/8 | |
| +1101 book | −1451 book | 4/8 | |
| +1755 books | — | 5/8 | |
| +3805 books | — | 5/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 30.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 30.5 | Under 30.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings4 min ago | −112 | −117Best |
| Bovada4 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −108Best | −120 |
| betPARX4 min ago | −112 | −121 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −112 | −121 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −112 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
30.529.5 → 30.5 since first seen


