Anthony Davis

Washington Wizards · F · #23

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Blocks, typical price −1892 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
ATL allow 3.3 blocks a game to forwards: 3rd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Tristan Vukcevic: Out (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jamir Watkins: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with WSH; before that, DAL
Under 1.5 with WSH: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Blocks hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

vs HOU, 2026-01-03: 5, missed, 39 min
at SAC, 2026-01-06: 2, missed, 36 min
at UTAH, 2026-01-08: 1, hit, 35 min
vs MIL, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 34 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 32 min
at CHI, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 31 min
at CHA, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 35 min
at CLE, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 34 min
vs CHA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 34 min
at ORL, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 blocks.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 4 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

AJ DybantsaF
Trae YoungG
Kyshawn GeorgeF
Tristan VukcevicFOut
Jamir WatkinsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wizards count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ATL

Davis didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; blocks the last time Davis faced them: 5 (Apr 2, 2025)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against ATL on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −189
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −188 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3172 books	—	3/10
+1412 books	−1892 books	6/10
+4232 books	—	9/10
+11202 books	—	9/10
+23001 book	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Blocks, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel2 min ago	+140	−188Best
DraftKings13 min ago	+142Best	−190
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −188 → −189 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Anthony Davis's full game log and splits