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The line
Over 5.5 Points
Typical price −1273 sportsbooks
Game log
Over 5.5Over 5.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1.4–19.5 points.
Home and away
L10 · Over 5.5Home
60%
3 of 5
Awaytonight
100%
5 of 5
L10 · Over 5.5 Points
- Average
- 12.7
- +7.2 vs line
- Median
- 11
- +5.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- −127, 3 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 63%
- estimate · fair −170
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −127 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −170, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet1 hr ago | −127Best | — |
| betPARX1 hr ago | −127Best | −106Best |
| DraftKings1 hr ago | −159 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2102 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1273 books | −1061 book | 8/10 | |
| +1131 book | −1441 book | 7/10 | |
| +1553 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +3103 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +4803 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +8601 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +17801 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +25001 book | — | 2/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+2%