Aday Mara

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #15

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Under 8.5 Points, typical price −1245 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%2 of 5L8 · Without Williams

Under 8.5 Points hit in 2 of 5 games without Jalen Williams (his last 8 games).

at SA, 2026-10-20: 7, hit, 12 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 14 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 11, missed, 20 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 6, hit, 21 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 7, hit, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 10, missed, 20 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 9, missed, 25 min

Under hitMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.9–16.2 points.

What's different today

Under 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs centers
MEM allow 8.5 points a game to centers: 29th most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 8.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 8.5 · L8

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Mara didn't play the Jan 9 meeting

L8 · Without Williams · Under 8.5

Average: 8.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 9; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 2 of 5
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L8 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−5601 book	—	0/5
−3453 books	—	0/5
−1623 books	—	2/5
−1095 books	−1244 books	2/5
+1204 books	—	3/5
+2253 books	—	5/5
+5201 book	—	5/5

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114	−114Best
betPARX1 min ago	−108Best	−124
BetRivers2 min ago	−109	−125
Bally Bet3 min ago	−108Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

Under: −112 → −124 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Aday Mara's full game log and splits