Aday Mara

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #15

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Under 8.5 Points, typical price −1276 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%2 of 5L8 · Without Williams

Under 8.5 Points hit in 2 of 5 games without Jalen Williams (his last 8 games).

at SA, 2026-10-20: 7, hit, 12 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 14 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 11, missed, 20 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 6, hit, 21 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 7, hit, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 10, missed, 20 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 9, missed, 25 min

Under hitMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.9–16.2 points.

What's different today

Under 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs centers
MEM allow 8.5 points a game to centers: 29th most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 3 of 3 (8 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 8.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 8.5 · L8

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Mara didn't play the Jan 9 meeting

L8 · Without Williams · Under 8.5

Average: 8.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 9; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 2 of 5
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −116 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L8 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−5201 book	—	0/5
−3454 books	—	0/5
−1554 books	—	2/5
−1056 books	−1275 books	2/5
+1255 books	—	3/5
+2254 books	—	5/5
+5452 books	—	5/5

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−110	−116Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−106	−125
Pinnacle6 min ago	−104Best	−127
betPARX3 min ago	−105	−129
BetRivers2 min ago	−105	−129
Bally Bet6 min ago	−105	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:33 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

Under: −112 → −127 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Aday Mara's full game log and splits