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Derby, this season at 90 minutes: 1W 4D 9L against Bolton, this season at 90 minutes: 5W 2D 7L

Championship · Fri, Nov 6 3:00 PM ET

Derby
+13241%
Draw
+25726%
Bolton
+17734%

90 minutes · 4 sportsbooks · Total 2.5: Over −150 Under +110

The market makes Derby 41% / draw 26% / Bolton 34%. Research, not a pick.How

Every soccer market here settles at 90 minutes plus stoppage time: extra time and penalties never count. A chance is the books' fair chance: each sportsbook pricing every outcome has its margin taken out, and the chances are averaged (4 sportsbooks on the 3-way now). It is the market's number, never ours.

We make no pick on soccer until its grading has been checked on real results.

Lines

every market at 90 minutes: the typical price, the books' fair chance under itUpdated

Result (90 min)4 sportsbooks

Barely moved since our first read

Result (90 min): each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance.
DerbyDrawBolton
+13241%+25726%+17734%

Total goals4 sportsbooks

Barely moved since our first read

Total goals: each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance, line by line.
GoalsOverUnder
1.51 sportsbook−501no fair chance+353no fair chance
2.5most posted−15056%+11044%
2.75quarter line−120no fair chance+101no fair chance
31 sportsbook+114no fair chance−138no fair chance
3.51 sportsbook+163no fair chance−207no fair chance
4.51 sportsbook+374no fair chance−538no fair chance

A quarter line (2.25, −0.75) is half the stake on each line beside it: it can win or lose half.

Both teams to score3 sportsbooks

Barely moved since our first read

Both teams to score: each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance.
YesNo
−18261%+12540%

Draw no bet2 sportsbooks

Barely moved since our first read

Draw no bet: each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance.
DerbyBolton
−13855%+10446%

Double chance3 sportsbooks

Barely moved since our first read

Double chance: each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance.
Derby or drawDerby or BoltonDraw or Bolton
−23566%−35074%−17560%

Asian handicap3 sportsbooks

Asian handicap: each outcome's typical price and the books' fair chance, line by line.
HandicapDerbyBolton
DER −0.51 sportsbook+142no fair chance−171no fair chance
DER −0.25most posted+10047%−12853%
DER 01 sportsbook−123no fair chance+106no fair chance
DER +0.51 sportsbook−213no fair chance+174no fair chance

A quarter line (2.25, −0.75) is half the stake on each line beside it: it can win or lose half.

Typical price: the middle price of the sportsbooks posting that line. The fair chance needs two or more sportsbooks pricing every outcome of the line.

Compare 4 sportsbooks
Result (90 min)
SportsbookDerbyDrawBoltonRead
BetMGM+130+260+1859 min ago
BetRivers+125+240+1759 min ago
Bovada+135+255+1809 min ago
Pinnacle+143+268+1759 min ago
Total goals 2.5
SportsbookOver 2.5Under 2.5Read
BetMGM−160+1109 min ago
BetRivers−141+1069 min ago
Pinnacle−150+1249 min ago
Both teams to score
SportsbookYesNoRead
BetMGM−185+1259 min ago
BetRivers−177+1239 min ago
Pinnacle−182+1459 min ago
Draw no bet
SportsbookDerbyBoltonRead
BetRivers−150+1059 min ago
Pinnacle−127+1039 min ago
Double chance
SportsbookDerby or drawDerby or BoltonDraw or BoltonRead
BetMGM−235−350−1759 min ago
BetRivers−250−360−1759 min ago
Pinnacle−217−346−1749 min ago
Asian handicap −0.25
SportsbookDerby −0.25Bolton +0.25Read
BetRivers−105−1329 min ago
Bovada+105−1259 min ago

Each sportsbook's own price, as of 11:17 PM ET.

Side by side

this season (2026–27), every competition, at 90 minutes
DERWhatBOL
Derby, 0W 1D 4L:
  1. Lost 1–4 away to Queens Park Rangers, Championship, Oct 14
  2. Lost 0–1 at home to Stoke City, Championship, Oct 17
  3. Drew 1–1 away to Sheffield United, Championship, Oct 24
  4. Lost 1–4 away to Millwall, Championship, Oct 31
  5. Lost 0–4 at home to Norwich City, Championship, Nov 3
Last 5 · oldest to newest
Bolton, 2W 1D 2L:
  1. Won 3–1 away to Wolverhampton Wanderers, Championship, Oct 13
  2. Drew 0–0 away to Southampton, Championship, Oct 17
  3. Lost 1–5 at home to Middlesbrough, Championship, Oct 23
  4. Lost 2–3 at home to Bristol City, Championship, Oct 31
  5. Won 1–0 away to Charlton Athletic, Championship, Nov 3
1–4–9, 14 gamesWon–drawn–lost5–2–7, 14 games
0.8, 14 gamesGoals scored a game1.4, 14 games
2.1, 14 gamesGoals allowed a game1.9, 14 games
12.1, 14 games; allowed 15.8Shots a game13.8, 14 games; allowed 14.2
3.7, 14 games; allowed 6.1Shots on target a game4.6, 14 games; allowed 5.5
48%, 14 gamesPossession50%, 14 games
5.6, 14 games; allowed 5.4Corners a game5.4, 14 games; allowed 5.6
12.5, 14 games; allowed 8.8Fouls a game10.4, 14 games; allowed 10.1
2.1, 14 games; allowed 1.6Yellow cards a game1.6, 14 games; allowed 1.4

ESPN's team stats, averaged over the games ESPN has them for (each number's sample under it); “allowed” is the opponents' average in the same games. The darker number is the bigger one (the smaller for goals allowed, fouls and cards): a fact, not a pick.

How the prices moved

the typical price since our first read, each outcome

Result (90 min)

Bolton +185 → +177 since first seen

  • Derby+130 → +132
  • Draw+260 → +257
  • Bolton+185 → +177

Both teams to score

No move since first seen

  • Yes−182 → −182
  • No+125 → +125

Draw no bet

Derby −143 → −138 since first seen

  • Derby−143 → −138
  • Bolton+106 → +104

Double chance

Draw or Bolton −174 → −175 since first seen

  • Derby or draw−235 → −235
  • Derby or Bolton−350 → −350
  • Draw or Bolton−174 → −175